Standard Chartered has updated its year-end prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), elevating it to $150,000 from the previous forecast of $100,000. Additionally, the bank anticipates that Bitcoin will hit a cycle high of $250,000 next year, eventually stabilizing at around $200,000, as outlined in an investment note distributed via email on Monday.
Bitcoin ETFs & Gold ETFs
Standard Chartered's revised forecast for Bitcoin draws on a detailed analysis comparing the impact of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launch in the U.S. and the observed correlation between ETF inflows and Bitcoin prices. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in January serves as a pivotal reference point for this analysis.
The bank suggests that the gold market's response to ETFs provides a reliable benchmark for predicting Bitcoin's price trajectory in the medium term. According to their investment note, should ETF inflows hit the bank's estimated midpoint of $75 billion or should reserve managers start purchasing Bitcoin, there's a significant possibility that Bitcoin could surge to the $250,000 mark at some point in 2025.
Moreover, Standard Chartered anticipates regulatory developments that could further influence the crypto market. Specifically, the bank highlights the potential approval of an Ether (ETH) ETF by the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 23, which could attract up to $45 billion in inflows within its first year. This regulatory milestone could propel Ether to an estimated $8,000 by the end of 2024, from its current trading price of around $3,570.
Looking ahead to 2025, Standard Chartered expects the Ether-to-Bitcoin price ratio to revert to the 7% level observed throughout much of 2021-22. Based on their projected Bitcoin price of $200,000 at the end of 2025, this would suggest an Ether price of approximately $14,000.
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