The Bitcoin Halving is one of the most awaited events in the crypto market as it usually creates a positive sentiment that pushes the Bitcoin price further upwards.
Most people think that after the halving, Bitcoin’s price will surge significantly leaving no rooM for correction.
This is not a correct statement as the price of Bitcoin after The Bitcoin Halving tends to fluctuate a little bit with the overall trend going upwards.
In this article, we will talk about the movement of Bitcoin after the previous halvings with an in depth analysis of how Bitcoin will move in this current halving cycle.
Bitcoin’s Price after Halving
Investors in the crypto market, especially new ones, tend to get eaten up by a bullish narrative of the Bitcoin Halving.
While it might not be necessarily wrong, the narrative usually creates FOMO that rives new investors into the market without looking at what is really happening.
The effect of a Bitcoin Halving is usually positive overall, but in the short run, there will still be fluctuations, especially going from month to month.
Looking at the previous data from Coinglass, it can be seen that during the post 2012 halving, post 2016 halving, and post 2020 halving, there are still red on the board, meaning there still might be corrections after halvings.
If we take a closer look at 2013 it can be seen that after the 2012 Bitcoin Halving, the price of Bitcoin still went down in May and June, and then again in August, before evidently reaching the end of the bull market.
The same thing also happened in 2016 to 2017 and 2020 to 2021, where there is still red across the board that shows Bitcoin still has corrections after halvings, even in the bull market.
So the narrative that Bitcoin will always go up has to be taken with an analysis of your own, because while the narrative says that the price will only go up, there will still be some corrections along the way.
In-Depth Analysis of Halvings
Looking deeply into the chart, it can be seen that the correction in the bull market does not only happen in a month, as it can extend to either two to three months.
Taking a closer look at the 2012 to 2015 Bitcoin price movement, it can be seen that there are ups and downs along the way, even in the bull market.
From the November 2012 Halving to April 2013, the price of BItcoin rose more than 6,000% giving evidence of a start to the bull market.
But, in the bull market, during April 2013 until June 2013, there was a more than 75% correction, giving evidence that corrections can happen in the bull market.
The bull market has not ended yet as during September 2013 until November 2013 the price of Bitcoin went up by almost 2,000% before ending the bull market with a correction of more than 87% until 2015.
The same thing happened in 2016 where the price of Bitcoin rose around 3,600% from July 2016 to December 2017, with corrections of around January, March, and September all through the years of 2017.
Also at the start of the cycle, Bitcoin went down immediately after The Bitcoin Halving of 2016, where the price fell around 40% the same as the corrections in 2017.
The recent cycle of 2016 halving also showed the same pattern, where the price went up by almost 650% after halving, and then it went down close to 55%, and then went back up again close to 135%, before ending the bull market with a 76,5% correction.
Current Cycle
This pattern might repeat in this cycle of 2024 halving, but there is some abnormality, in the sense that Bitcoin has never gone up this much before a Bitcoin Halving.
The movement might prompt a correction after the predicted April 2024 halving, just like the movement of the 2016 halving.
If so, then looking at the previous correction, there might be a 40% to 50% from its current price, where Bitcoin might come back to $40,000 and even $35,000.
Conclusion
Looking at the previous data, it is good to keep in mind that Bitcoin might always not go up as there will be corrections along the way.
If you are new to the crypto market then be ready because thighs “slight corrections” might make Bitcoin drop around 40% to even 50%.
Because of this, it is better to always have proper risk management before going into the predicted bull cycle of 2024 to 2025, so you can capitalize on the profit without leaving with too many losses.
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