Bitcoin is currently sitting above $60,000 after the huge influx of funds sent by institutional investors through the purchase of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
The transaction volume itself has reached over $2 Billion daily on average since the last couple of weeks which prompted Bitcoin to be as high as it is now.
Currently we are heading into March and soon we will arrive in April, which is when the predicted Bitcoin Halving is supposed to happen.
Some investors are now predicting that the market will continue to go up, while some predict it will go down. But which one is correct?
Prediction From Previous Years
Predicting the Bitcoin price in March and April 2024 will require previous price movement to be analyzed. Luckily, Coinglass has provided data on monthly returns since 2013 until now, which is continuously being updated.
Looking at March and April in the previous years, there is a mixed signal, because prices can go up and go down in March and April.
In 2014 until 2018, all the March movements are giving corrections where the largest corrections happened in the bear markets which are 2014 and 2018.
Oddly enough in 2022, which is the last nearest bear market, March shows a positive movement of more than 5% price increase, which shows that not all bear markets in March give corrections.
Regarding April, most of the years show that Bitcoin price usually increases significantly, giving hints of potential price gains after near before halving occurs.
Looking at Halvings
But to look into it more precisely, let’s take a look at March and April during halving years on the table above.
Currently only two available March halvings are shown on the data which are 2016’s March and 2020’s March.
Both of those results show red, which means that typically before a halving occurs, Bitcoin tends to go down in March.
Looking at April, both 2016's April and 2020’s April show a positive movement for Bitcoin which indicates that Bitcoin’s price will increase in April.
Conclusion
By using the data above, it can be predicted that Bitcoin’s price can go down in March and will go back up again in April, probably nearing the end of it, which is when the halving is supposed to happen.
This might be true since the overall buying volume of Bitcoin in the spot market is currently standing at an overbought condition with leverages in the derivatives market going through the roof, giving hints of potential market overheating.
Also the current price of Bitcoin seems to be nearing the last top of the 2021 bull market, and considering prices never go higher than previous market tops before halving occurs, there is a significant chance that Bitcoin will go down in March 2024.
But overall, just like any predictions, this one might be right but it might also be wrong, so investors can just use this article as a consideration material when deciding what to do going into March and April of 2024.
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